Wow.  Leading up to those playoff games I thought I was pretty good and my prediction skills.  I really did, after all I am always in the top 3 in my March Madness pool and I’m usually in the top 5 in our NFL pick ‘ems.  The playoffs seemed to be no brainers because the home teams had such strong cases for victory.  Man was I wrong.

New Englad beat the Jags like I predicted and the Jags simply couldn’t stop them.  Brady set an NFL record for completion percentage in a playoff game and they went up and down the field every time.  Any time it got to 3rd down the Pats would get the first to keep the drive alive and you could see it demoralize the Jags each series.  The Jags played tough and I think would be the team to beat if not for the Patriots.

Green Bay killed the Seahawks.  I predicted a close game but I didnt’ predict Ryan Grant running for 200 yards.  Green Bay scored every possession except for 2 I believe.  They looked good and I’m happy for Favre.  I’m happy for the NFL because it pits the Packers versus the Giants.  The smallest market team with the most loyal fan base against the largest market team who upset American’s team.  I like it.

San Diego beat Indy at Indy and this one shocked me.  Indy just couldn’t finish drives like they are accustomed to and San Diego made plays.  Indy was stopped twice inside the 15 with no points being scored and you can’t do that and win in the playoffs.  The Chargers were feeding off the crowd there and I was impressed with the poise they showed after losing Tomlinson and Rivers.  I’ve never been a Rivers fan and if he’s out I still think they are just as good or better off with Volek playing.  If Tomlinson doesn’t play the Chargers will be in more trouble than they already are against the Pats.  Rumor has Dungy leaving Indy but I hope he doesn’t.  He seems like a class act in a league that needs some leaders with class.  By the way, I predicted a large win for the Colts.

Dallas got beat at home by the Giants.  I didn’t see this one coming at all.  Eli Manning actually looked good and in control despite being pressured the entire game.  He hung in the pocket and took some shots from the Cowboys defense but played very well.  Eli really looked to rookie Steve Smith from Usc and Amani Toomer whenever he was in trouble and it worked.  They did just enough for the win.  Dallas on the other hand is now going to get really scrutinized.  Tony Romo is going to get some flak because of his vacation with Jessica Simpson recently but it is undeserved.  Dallas simply couldn’t make plays down the stretch and it cost them.  The Giants were able to pressure Romo late and force him into some poor choices.  Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game for the past 12 seasons now and that amazes me. 

What a wild ride! After a regular season chuck full of #1 and #2 ranked teams getting upset week in a week out and then the complete collapse of West Virginia and Missouri, it is safe to say the BCS system is a bunch of ‘BS’. Of course we all have our opinions and I think it is safe to say there needs to be a playoff system to ensure that what has happened over the course of the 2007 season does not repeat itself. However, that will be saved for another blog. Rather I would like to focus my attention on the eventual selections in the title game, Ohio State and LSU.

From the moment the Mountaineers lost in embarrassing fashion to the Pitt Panthers “experts” throughout the country were throwing in their two cents as to who they believed belonged in the Big Dance. After the so called “experts” had their say even the coaches of LSU, USC and Georgia put forth a sort of political stump for the BCS voters as to why they deserved a shot at the national championship game. At one point I had to laugh and just say this is “getting out of control”. For that purpose I decided to throw my few bits into the mix and share with everyone why I believe LSU and Ohio State were the most appropriate teams selected to play for the BCS National Championship.

Reason #1 – Ohio State was ranked #3 in the previous week BCS rankings. As much as I dislike the Buckeyes and the fact that they did not have to do a thing to get where they are, I believe they rightfully deserve a spot in the big game because natural math says, “If #1 an #2 lose then of course #3 becomes the new #1.”  It just makes sense. The voters believed last week that Ohio State was the 3^rd best team in the country, as a result they by the process of elimination they should be ranked #1. Some of you may argue, “Well, based upon that line of thinking then Georgia should be in the title game.” Go ahead and read Reason #2 why there should be an exception for the Bulldogs.

Reason #2 – LSU won their division and the SEC title. Of course, those of you reading this may reply and say that “the BCS never stipulated that you have to be a division winner or a conference champ to qualify for the BCS title game.” I could agree with that statement IF the other teams ranked in the top 5 BCS standings did not win their respective conferences, had beaten several quality top 25 teams and the losses were mere flukes. However, for both Georgia they could not qualify for those standards and thus rightfully they were left out of a possible spot in the title game. On the other hand, LSU has several high profile wins during the season (Tennessee and Florida) and their only loses were the result of a dumb overtime rule (failed 2 point conversions) to some pretty darn good teams. In any case LSU won its conference, was ranked #1 in BCS rankings for several weeks and with the exception of a couple triple overtime games during the year they deserve to be playing of the College Football National Championship.

As of Sunday the 25th of November, Missouri and West Virginia are slated to face one another in the BCS title game January 7^th. Both still have yet another game to play until they can punch their ticket to New Orleans and both could potentially lose their position and be out of the big dance. All the while, Ohio State, who wrapped up their season on Nov. 17^th with a win at Michigan, could find them in the title game by doing absolutely nothing. Now I can understand that if West Virginia were to lose to the 4-7 Pittsburgh Panthers this coming week, they should rightfully not be given a chance to play for the National Championship. However on the other hand, Missouri has already won all their regular season games, yet if they lose in their conference championship against Oklahoma, they will most likely lose their position in the BCS title game. To me presents one of the biggest problem with the BCS.

The BCS Championship game is supposed to represent the two best teams in the country. For Missouri, they have already proven that fact by winning 11 games and losing a close game to the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman earlier this year. But at this point in the season, there is not a hotter team in the country. They have won six straight since that loss and they completely dominated offensively against the previous #2 ranked team in the country, the Kansas Jayhawks.  If you were to compare them to the Ohio State Buckeyes they have matched them toe to toe. Both have dominated in their conference, beat fairly good opponents, and have only one lose on their resume. However, the difference lies in the fact that Ohio State is done playing. They don’t have to play another game, thus risking any potential of losing their place in the BCS title game.

Basically, my argument is this…if you are sitting in one of the top two BCS positions at the end of the regular season you should be guaranteed that spot regardless of the outcome of a potential conference championship game. This would make the playing field level for all conferences thus eliminating any debate for the future.

The grumblings have started amongst NFL fans across the nation…”Can they really be stopped?” “Can anyone ever beat these guys?” “Do they have a legitimate shot to run the table?” “Should we crown them already?” For most people these have been thoughts and ideas running through their minds as they watch another Sportscenter highlight reel of Tom Brady to Moss or seeing the Pats demolish another team by 48 points. Although it is easy to start jumping on the Patriot bandwagon and begin “crowning their butts” I believe the Pats will not only finish the season defeated but they may not even advance to the Super Bowl.

Reason #1 –Pittsburgh Steelers Week 14 – One of the more exciting rivalries being developed in the league over the past few years, the Pats will face the Steelers at home in what could be the biggest test of the year. With Rothethlesberger beginning to heat up and the “Steel Curtain” beginning to shut down offenses in recent weeks, there is a good possibility we may see a Josh Reed last second field goal propel Pitt to a huge win.

On a side note, if the Steelers don’t get out of Foxboro with a “W”, I find the probability of a rematch in the divisional playoffs or AFC Championship highly likely. There is even a higher probability that the Steelers don’t lose consecutively to the Pats in the same year.

Reason #2 Belichick’s Pride – With the record looming and the potential of owning the holiest record in NFL history. If there is a chance to run the table, I believe Belichick will go for it. Not only will he go for it but he will sacrifice his team’s health in so doing. However, while keeping his starting offensive and defensive units late into the games, there will be an injury to Moss or a defensive stud that will handicap them going into the playoffs, thus, ultimately ruining the chances of an undefeated season.

Reason #3 1972 Miami Dolphins – Regardless how close any team may get to the record there will always be the karma of the 72’ Dolphins. It is much like the curse the Chicago Cubs carry each year. No matter how good they do, or how close they may come to break the streak, something freakish always happens to mess it up. Same thing goes with this all sacred record. It may be another 65 years until the holiest of holy records goes by the way side and an NFL team runs the table through the regular and post seasons.

Well, I think all of us saw it coming the moment the Michigan Wolverines lost to Division IAA Appalachian St. for the season and home opener for the 2007 season, because according to ESPN Lloyd Carr, head coach, is expected to announce his retirement this coming Monday November 19^th. For me I think this move is long overdue and should have happened last year after Michigan’s season ending loss to Ohio State. Although Carr is a good Head Coach and is easily competent to successfully lead 90% of any other major college program out there, however, he has proven that he cannot succeed in the current BCS environment and he really struggles in big games that count. As such here are the top three reasons why Lloyd Carr should not be given a head coaching position for a major BCS contenting program.

#1 Lack of Ability to Win Games that Count – Ever since the National Championship in 1997, Carr has really struggled in BCS bowl games and against top notch programs. For example, he has only won the Rose Bowl once out of four tries, and of those he has lost by an average of 10 points per game. In addition to his struggles in big time Bowls he also has been lacking in delivering against his greatest rival the Ohio St Buckeyes. Over the last 7 years Michigan is a pathetic 1-6. To me that say he has lost his edge to win any game that really counts.

#2 Zero Appearances to the BCS Championship Game – With the size of recruiting budget and conference affiliation it is amazing that Carr could not have put one team into the big dance. Every year each sports publication rates Michigan as one of the top three recruiting classes. With that amount of depth and talent to utilize each year it is baffling that he could not put at least one team into the big game. The only conclusion I can draw is Lloyd Carr cannot coach. No matter the talent or depth he may have players do not respond to his coaching philosophies the way that translates into Championships.

#3 Playing to the Level of Competition – This is I believe Carr’s biggest fallacy. It became evident this season when they faced a Division IAA program Appalachian St. Being the season opener, at home and with the talent he had, Carr still did not have his players motivated enough to come out and totally demolish the opponent. Rather they took the opposite approach. The players assumed the moment they walked on the field Appalachian St would simply whither away and crawl back into their cave where they came from. Obviously that did not happen and Division I football suffered its most embarrassing defeat in each storied history.

After Monday night’s game against the Seattle Seahawks the San Francisco 49ers continued a seven game losing streak. During this streak the offense has been flat out embarrassing. They rank second to last in total offensive yards, last in points per game, and most critical, last in first downs. They have had two games this season where they have only gained 6 first downs, the last time that happened, JFK was President and football players were not wearing face masks.  

Clearly it is evident that the 49ers offense is the true reason why they have hit rock bottom and may be potentially the worst team in the NFL. With all these offensive problems there are whisperings emerging in the media that Alex Smith is a bust. They are saying that he is no better than David Carr or Joey Harrington. For me I am still hesitant to make that conclusion and say he could have been the biggest mistake the 49ers have made in the their draft history.   But there is plenty of evidence to support it.

Fact #1 Alex has yet to throw more TD’s than INT’s – Over his 2 and half season career Alex has thrown a combined 31 INTs vs. 19 TDs. If you ask any analyst or former NFL QB what they determine as the best indicator of a QB’s greatness, they always measure the TD to INT ratio.  That stat has a direct correlation with the success of the team a QB is leading. The best example of this is Mr. Clutch himself Tom Brady. He posses almost a 3 to 1 ratio, which is an NFL record.

Fact #2 Alex has a record of 11 wins vs. 21 total losses. To me this stat says a lot. It tells me that he is not an NFL winner. When he struggles he struggles, rarely does he lead his team from behind. In fact if he is faced with adversity he usually does something to loss the game either by making a bad throw or he makes a poor decision that puts his team in an impossible situation to win.

Fact #3 Alex was overrated coming out of college. This is more of a statement than a factual statistic. The biggest mistake the GM for the 49ers made when they decided to select him as the #1 selection in the 2005 draft was his fascination with Alex’s size and arm strength. Once again an NFL team got deceived by the player combine numbers and physical looks than really looking into Alex’s ability to translate his college dominance to the pro game. If you look at the offense he ran in college it was 95% shot gun and it evolved around solely around deception such as the QB option. Obviously, when you get to the NFL that stuff simply does not exist. Offenses are more complex and they require the QB to make smart decisions in order to defeat an opposing defense rather rely on trickery to do the same. I believe Alex fits in the same type of category such as Jason White, Troy Smith or even a TY Detmer. They were all amazing college QB’s but mediocre QB’s in the NFL.  

Coming off a solid win against the defending Super Bowl champs this past weekend and staying unbeaten through the first 9 games of the season, the New England Patriots are primed to contend for the holiest of all NFL records…finish the regular season 16-0.   Although they still must face some viable opponents (Steelers and Giants) in order to preserve the winning streak, the Pats are as capable as any team in recent history to remain unbeaten leading into the playoffs. However, there is much debate as to validity of such an achievement since they were caught cheating in the second week of the season against the Jets. Many people are saying that if they do go undefeated there needs to be an asterisk attached to their record.

Although I believe the Patriots did gain an unfair advantage over their opponents before they were caught and they may have won games in the past they should have lost if they weren’t stealing signs, I DO NOT believe they deserve an asterisk next to their name if they do run the table through the season. My reasoning lies within these factors.

1-      The Patriot got caught cheating in the second week of the season. I think it is clear that if they had gained an unfair advantage in the first two games of the season that really has nothing to do with their ability to win seven more games against some real quality opponents.

2-      The Patriots were punished and embarrassed by the commissioner when they were caught. Belechick and the Owner Kraft got a literal tongue lashing by the Commissioner when they were caught earlier this season. Many of their fans were embarrassed and several NFL owners expressed anger towards the Pats in violating those rules. Although they lost some trust from the fans and other teams in the league, I believe there is still a deep respect for the Patriot franchise and the way they win games.

3-      The Patriots risk “banishment” from the league if they end up getting caught again. I think it is safe to say they ceased to continue their cheating ways. If they didn’t and have devised new ways to break the rules, they risk astronomical fines, suspensions and post season play. I truly think that if they were to get caught again they would face sever sanctions that could risk the integrity of the game itself. To me that is too much to risk just to gain a slight advantage against an opponent.

The Minnesota Viking’s Adrian Peterson has established himself as the one of the more dominate running backs this season. Not only does he deserve the NFL Rookie of the Year award but I think it is fair to say that he may even contend for the Most Valuable Player Award. Here are the top 3 reasons why he can win the 2007 NFL MVP.

1)      On Pace to Eclipse 2000 Yards Rushing. Through the first 6 games of the season Adrian has over 1000 yards rushing. If he were to continue his current pace he would join only three running backs to ever achieve that feet, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis and Barry Sanders. In each instance only 1 (Jamal Lewis) did not win NFL MVP. Clearly, if Adrian can get to 2000 yards rushing in a season I think that alone should give him the award.

2)      All Time Single Game Rushing Leader. Against a pretty good San Diego defense, A.P. lit them up for an NFL record 296 rushing yards from the line of scrimmage. You would think that would be a major accomplishment by the opposing running back, L.T. or even a Larry Johnson, but that was accomplished by an NFL rookie that has only played in 8 NFL games. Not a bad way to start a career!

3)      Most Outstanding NFL Rookie Ever to Play. That is a very bold statement when comparing A.P. to the likes of an Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith, who all had fabulous rookie seasons. What separates Adrian from those Hall of Famers is the fact that he will be the only NFL Rookie RB to have rushed for more yards in a season, most 200 yard rushing games (2 so far), and accumulate more yards from the line of scrimmage (On pace for 2800+ for the season). Clearly, when you compare what has happened and what Adrian is doing is clearly compelling.

Well the facts speak for itself, but what is most intriguing of what Adrian has accomplished this far into the season is he has done without a passing game. As a result, he has accumulated 75% of his yards against defenses that have thrown 8 defenders in the box. That to me is the most convincing of all of his accomplishments.

Looking at the Heisman race as well as next years NFL draft, there is a subtle debate going on among fans and scouts as to the best college quarterback. Looking at the first 8 games of the season there are really only two top contenders, Tim Tebow of Florida and Matt Ryan of Boston College.

These two studs have shown incredible talent, ability and leadership in each of their contests of the season. However, if I were an NFL GM and had to pick one to lead a franchise, at this moment I would have to chose Mr. Matt Ryan.

Comparing the two quarterbacks statistically, Tim Tebow actually grades out higher than Ryan. He has a higher completion %, higher TD to interception ratio, and most impressively a higher passer rating (an awe dropping 176.3).  You would have to say if Tebow continues to have such amazing numbers it would be ridiculous not select him as the best NFL prospect and college QB. The problem however, is no matter how incredible your stats may be the true measure of QB lies within how that statistics compare in the “Big games”. This is where Matt Ryan shines.

In every game where Boston College needed to rely on its QB to lead the team to victory Matt delivered each time. Against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech he came up huge. Of course, there is not much more than can be said what Matt did against the Hokie defense in the last 4 minutes at Virginia Tech. Sadly for Tebow the same can’t e said. In each of Florida’s 3 losses this season Tim had season lows in passer rating and passing yards. What was more discouraging, Tim never was able to lead his team down the field and give them an opportunity to win. That to me tells you more about the character of a top rated QB than passing stats and touchdowns.

Although there are a lot of games yet to be played, and there is much yet to be proven by Matt Ryan for the rest of the season. But right now at this moment if I had to pick one college QB to run the 2 minute drill and lead my team to the winning score I would take the Boston College QB hands down.

With all the hype and buildup over the past few weeks, this weekend’s match up between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will definitely be the game of the season. The winner of this game could be in the driver seat with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and more importantly make a huge statement to the entire league.

Although the Colts are the defending NFL champs and this weekend’s game is at home, I believe there is little hope the Colts can come up victorious in this game. As such here are my TOP 3 REASONS why the New England Patriots will beat the Indianapolis Colts.

Reason #1 - Wes Welker

Many people reading this may be wondering why in the heck am I am listing a small, white boy, third option wide receiver as a reason why the Pats will beat the Colts this weekend.  It is because of Wes Welker that Tom Brady is having the season he is. Yes, you may argue that Moss and Stallworth have been able to provide Brady with speed and quickness that he has never seen before, but the fact of the matter is Welker has had more clutch catches in key situations in every game this season. In fact, Wes has more third down conversions than Moss and Stallworth combined. And for anybody wondering, the Super Bowl Champ each year over the last 10 seasons has been in the top five in third down conversions.

Reason #2 – Bill Belichick

There is no other coach in the NFL that has a better reputation of preparing his team for big games. It seems anytime an opponent is rated higher or favored to win that game, the Patriots almost always find a way to win. In fact, the Patriots lead the NFL since 2001, in revenge games. Meaning, not one team in the past decade has been able to have consecutive victories over the Patriots. There is no doubt in my mind Belichick has been reminding his team about last years AFC Championship game and making sure he does all he can to make sure the Patriots don’t suffer two consecutive losses against the Colts.

Reason #3 – Tom Brady

Although Peyton Manning is one of the best true passers of all time and he is talented enough to lead his team to victory this weekend, nothing can compare to Tom Brady and his talent of leading the Pats to victories in big games. There is no other QB in history that has the leadership and competitive spirit that Tom possesses. With that attitude and spirit how he approaches each game there is no questions that Tom Brady will make it happen this weekend and lead his team to 9-0.